January 2012
7 posts
The Costs of a War With Iran →
U.S. Worries Mount over Blowback of Israeli Attack on Iran By Barbara Slavin* President Barack Obama talks on the phone with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office, Jan. 12, 2012. Credit:White House Photo by Pete Souza
WASHINGTON, Jan 18, 2012 (IPS) - A former senior adviser on the Middle East to the last four U.S. presidents says that “the negatives far outweigh the...
Stealth Engagement?
The past few weeks have made me scratch my head about the dramatically dissonant signals coming out of Washington. One possible conclusion is pure chaos and incompetence, with no one in control of the message.
But there is an alternative explanation that intrigues me. Perhaps messages are being delivered to multiple audiences more or less simultaneously, in a complicated effort to have your cake...
Gary Sick on Charlie Rose with Ignatius, Miller →
At the link is a video from the first segment of Charlie Rose on Thursday. This was a rambling, relaxed, engaging, kitchen table sort of discussion of Iran-US relations, among other things. Despite the amiable environment (or perhaps because of it?) there was a lot of substance in this set of exchanges.
Iran, U.S. need a crisis exit ramp →
At the link is my latest take on the crisis between the United States and Iran and what could be done to alleviate it. It is on the CNN Opinion page. It concludes:
U.S. policy has been one of pressure leading to negotiations. Iran has also pursued a dual-track policy of threats combined with offers of negotiation. These policies have resulted in the prospect of a war that would be disastrous to...
A Satire on the Costs of a War With Iran
A colleague, Orrin Schwab, wrote the following tongue-in-cheek response to the apparent congressional eagerness to start a new war in the Middle East. Good satire often makes a serious point; in this case, it highlights the very real potential costs of a war with Iran. That is something you seldom hear from the war hawks, who want you to believe that it will be quick, bloodless, and cost-free to...
Who’s Afraid of the Ayatollahs?
Politicians and pundits are curiously schizophrenic when discussing Iran. On one hand, they are prepared to declare, as Mitt Romney did, that the “greatest threat that Israel faces, and frankly the greatest threat the world faces, is a nuclear Iran.” To deal with this threat, he says as president he will “restore the regular presence of aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean and the Persian...
Pushing Iran towards a nuclear bomb →
A seasoned observer of US-Iran relations makes the very persuasive point that our own warlike behavior is likely to hasten a decision by Iran to build a bomb. As he says:
The focus of Western policy has been on imposing pressure in order to give Iran’s leaders a reason not to weaponise. Equally important, however, and far too often overlooked, is the need to take care not to give Iran a...
December 2011
3 posts
Why don't Americans know anything about foreign... →
Are Americans fed pap? These photos of Time and Newsweek magazine covers in the US vs the rest of the world are simply astonishing.
Panetta on War With Iran
I recent months, we have had some strong views expressed, by people who have real knowledge of the situation, about the potential consequences of a military strike by Israel and/or the United States against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Former Mossad head Meir Dagan says it is “The stupidest idea I’ve ever heard.”
On Friday, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, speaking...
In Gaza, lives shaped by drones →
Here’s a footnote to The Doctrine of Silence (see entry below). Where is the perfect place to replace boots on the ground with drones in the air? The Gaza Strip.
Israel maintains watch over Gazans 24/7, and the sound of drones is part of their daily lives — a reminder that Israel is still there.
As Scott Wilson reports in The Washington Post:
Israel has argued that it no longer...
November 2011
8 posts
Roger Cohen: The Doctrine of Silence →
Roger Cohen, my favorite columnist at the New York Times, combines the uncommon qualities of courage and analytical astuteness. He sees beyond the horizon and does not flinch from describing what he sees — even when that is disturbing or contrary to the conventional wisdom.
A classic example is his description of the U.S. “Doctrine of Silence.” All of us are aware of...
The Really Big Question →
John Harris in The Guardian takes a running start at the unanswered question beneath the Arab Spring, the Tea Party, the Occupy Whatever, etc. Is this one of those moments like 1968 or 1989 or even 1848 when the world suddenly — and often inexplicably — changed?
He admits we don’t reallty understand what happened in the world wide youth revolts of 1968, and the 1989 collapse of...
Roger Cohen on Iran →
Here is perhaps the best one-paragraph definition of why a military strike on Iran would be, in the words of former Mossad head Meir Dagan, “the stupidest idea I’ve ever heard.” Roger Cohen of the NY Times:
This [a military strike], in the cautionary words of U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, could have “unintended consequences.” Among them: a lifeline for the weakened...
Secrets of the Super Committee →
This comic strip (really a dead-on commentary) is terminally clever.
CNN: Behind the Arab League Suspension of Syria →
Ben Wedeman on CNN has an exceptionally insightful commentary about the strategies, failings, aspirations and illusions of the Arab League as it struggles to adapt to the new realities of the Arab revolts. The vote to suspend Syria from the Arab League was merely the most recent symptom of the Iranophobia driving the surviving crop of Arab rulers.
For a good description of the background and...
Imminent Iran nuclear threat? →
My friend and colleague, Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor and author of an excellent book about Iranian politics, takes a look back at the steady drumbeat of alarming reports and predictions about the Iranian nuclear program (see link above).
The context and calm perspective that he offers is particularly useful to recall at a time like the present when the level of nuclear...
Gary Sick interview -- Bologna →
I’m presently lecturing at the Johns Hopkins University graduate school in Bologna, Italy. This is a ten minute interview they conducted with me on some big questions about US policy in the Persian Gulf.
If you want to see more of their research work, check out their facebook page.
Is Israel's "threat" to attack Iran yet another...
Every few years we have an outbreak of media and official speculation that Israel is on the verge of attacking Iran, perhaps in coordination with the United States. These mini-orgies of incestuous reportage typically involve reports of Israeli military preparation, a flashy show of long-range bombing runs, politicians saying that Iran is so close to a bomb that only bombing can stop them, and...
October 2011
5 posts
The Iran plot as B movie →
The NY Times blog summarizes the doubts of several Iran watchers, including me.
Did Iran launch a plot against the US? →
At the link is the text of an affidavit accusing Iran of organizing a hit on the Saudi Ambassador in Washington. I find this very hard to believe. In fact, this plot, if true, departs from all known Iranian policies and procedures. To be sure, Iran has plenty of reasons to be angry at both the United States and Saudi Arabia. They attribute the recent wave of assassinations of physics professors...
Romney Foreign Policy Vision a Big Dud →
A Washington insider’s very clear-eyed appraisal of Romney’s first attempt at foreign policy, and a back-handed compliment to his announced foreign policy advisers (i.e. who was left off).
Iran's Decline in the Arab World -- Rami Khouri
[The redoubtable Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut, Lebanon. He never stops moving — physically or intellectually. The short article below is the best analysis I have seen of Iran in the post-Arab Spring. Gary Sick]
Date: Tue, 4 Oct...
Iran Business Partners: Unlikely Bedfellows →
My friend and colleague Juan Cole of the University of Michigan and the blogosphere (Informed Comment) has written a sidebar to the recent story about Koch Industries illegally doing business with Iran.
The Koch (pronounced “coke”) brothers, in addition to their support of the arts, are some of the biggest underwriters of the right wing in the United States. Those they finance are...
September 2011
9 posts
Even Al-Qaida Ridicules Ahmadinejad Comments →
An Al-Qaida magazine says Ahmadinejad’s comments on 9/11 — attributing it to the US government — are ridiculous and fly in the face of all evidence.
Al-Qaida claims full responsibility and says that the Shia (which Iran claims to represent) do not want to give credit for such a major operation to a Sunni organization (Al-Qaida).
This has got to be one of the craziest exchanges...
A weakened Ahmadinejad in New York →
My colleague Jim Walsh of MIT, who is also a CNN contributor, has written a concise summary of Ahmadinejad’s weakened position — both domestically and in foreign policy. The item at the link makes a nice complement to my brief comments to NPR a couple of days ago (and posted below).
On being a protester in "the freest country in the... →
When Iranian President Ahmadinejad spoke to audiences in New York, one of his standard talking points was the claim that Iran is the freest country in the world. Below is an open letter written by the wife of Mehdi Karroubi, one of the candidates for president in the contested 2009 election and perhaps the most courageous and outspoken critic of the regime subsequently.
Fatemeh and Mehdi Karroubi...
Stuxnet = Pandora's Box →
It is surprising how few policy makers and policy analysts seem to grasp that the use of cyberweapons by the US and/or others runs the risk of very harmful retaliation. The article at the link should be required reading for everyone. In short:
Stuxnet, the cyberweapon that attacked and damaged an Iranian nuclear facility, has opened a Pandora’s box of cyberwar…
Iran's reduced status →
Michelle Keleman had a short piece on NPR this afternoon looking at the changed circumstances that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faces at his annual appearance at the United Nations. She and I had talked earlier, and there are some excerpts at the link: “Arab Spring Changes Ahmadinejad’s Position at U.N.”
Ahmadinejad and Columbia University - The Inside...
There is something about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s appearance in NY that seems to foster really shoddy journalism. Several days ago, the Columbia Spectator (student paper) reported that an international relations group at Columbia had received an invitation over the summer to meet with president AN at his midtown hotel during his visit. They were excited at the prospect, though apparently no...
Iran-Arab Relations and the United States →
At the link you will find an mp3 file (audio) of the keynote address I gave to a conference at the London School of Economics. I address a wide range of issues involving security in the Persian Gulf, the growth of sectarianism in Arab-Iran relations, the Arab Spring, U.S. presence and influence, and Iranian domestic politics, among other things. I regret that the questions in the Q&A period...
Where is the "Tehran Spring"? →
Here is a peek behind the veil in Iran. This is what citizens of Iran, who are frustrated and disappointed at the initial failure of their own “awakening” think about their present condition. They admire what is happening to Arab dictators and wonder why they can’t do the same. Maybe they can. Here are the words of one Tehrani:
“Do not think that just because you...
The consequences of war with Iran →
For those entranced with the idea of still another war in the Middle East — this time against Iran — here is a sobering analysis from someone who has had to think about it in more than cartoon concepts.
Bottom line: Don’t do it! Iraq was characterized as a cakewalk; well, compared to Iran that is just what it would be.
August 2011
4 posts
Will Iran Nuke the Tea Party? →
Ron Paul isn’t backing down on his bold assertion that war is not the solution to our Iran problem. At the link is an article by a senior member of Paul’s campaign staff that makes the point I blogged about yesterday. But he says it more succinctly:
. . .Iran is not a threat to the United States. Not even close. To the degree that conservatives actually believe that Iran is some...
What is left of neo-conservatism? →
Here is an interesting essay that wonders about the essence of neo-conservative doctrine. I like the author’s conclusion that “…the real destructiveness of neoconservatism is to infuse in so many Americans a belief in the transformative power of U.S. action abroad: the belief that our government and military can trigger predictable changes in the socio-political dynamics of only...
Has the Arab Spring by-passed Iran? Why? →
Michelle Moghtader of CNN has collected a set of reasons why Iran is not experiencing the same kind of turmoil as are other countries in the Middle East. The commentators she quotes are expert, and their reasons are sensible.
Basically, they say, Iran has recently had a revolution and is reluctant to repeat the experience; it already had its own full-blown revolt in 2009 that was brutally...
Al-Qa'ida: US infrastructure not worth blowing up →
The satirical paper The Onion has a hilarious article in which the top Al-Qaeda leader chastises the US for its ramshackle infrastructure. Al-Zawahiri is quoted as saying: ”We want to turn your bridges into rubble, but if we claimed credit for making them collapse, nobody would ever believe us. We’d really just be doing you a favor because then you’d actually have to rebuild...
July 2011
4 posts
The Arab Spring and US Policy →
The Human Rights Committee of the ABA, together with Human Rights Watch, is sponsoring a teleconference tomorrow, Thurs., Jul 11, at 12 noon EDT on the subject of the Arab Spring and US policy. If you are interested in participating, the call in number and other details may be found on the website linked above. Please share.
Is Israel's "threat" to attack Iran really a... →
Every few months we hear rumors and seemingly informed speculation that Israel is about to attack Iran. The most senior Israeli security experts say such an attack would not only be foolish but would backfire badly and leave Israel worse off than it was before the attack. But that doesn’t stop the pundits and arm chair generals — including, one must add, a number of high level Israeli...
Our Man in Damascus →
Political Scientist Marc Lynch reports on an interview with the remarkable US Ambassador in Syria, Robert Ford. He has made an unambiguous statement opposing Syrian brutality against its own people, and his courage in visiting battle zones has inspired the peaceful demonstrators who daily risk death — 1400 dead at the hands of regime forces so far.
We could use a few more like him.
Here...
Vali Nasr on Turkey's Role →
My colleague Vali Nasr, who was recently working with Dick Holbrook at the State Department, wrote these comments about the role of Turkey in the contemporary politics of the Middle East. It is perceptive and enlightening.
June 2011
9 posts
Iran's Theocracy: From Khomeini to Khamenei →
It is not common in the United States to have a personal briefing on the state of Iran’s government from someone who was present at the creation of the Islamic Republic, who is a trained cleric, who knows all the key players, and who has spent jail time because of his criticism of the way Iran is governed.
Mohsen Kadivar is a very well known Iranian cleric who is presently in the United...
Another New Strategy in Afghanistan by Jessica...
Jessica Tuchman Mathews, the president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, is one of the most astute observers of US policy. Below is her commentary following President Obama’s latest speech on Afghanistan. It is also available at http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/22/another-new-strategy-in-afghanistan/6d
JUNE 22, 2011
President Obama has emphatically...
Becoming the Enemy
Americans of a certain age will recall comic strip character Pogo’s observation that, “We have met the enemy and he is us.” That was published on the first Earth Day in 1970, but the phrase was immediately applied to the Vietnam War and almost any other event where humans are their own worst enemies. More recent candidates might be the invasion of Iraq, Abu Ghraib prison, and U.S. torture of...
Revolution in the Arab World →
Foreign Policy’s coverage of the Arab Spring. I’m happy to be one of the academics struggling to comprehend and react.
Eisenhower's Worst Fears Came True →
Although this article by Simon Jenkins of the Guardian in London is primarily about the UK, it is painfully true of the US as well. Here is an excerpt:
I wonder what Eisenhower would make of today’s US, with a military grown from 3.5 million people to 5 million. The western nations face less of a threat to their integrity and security than ever in history, yet their defence industries cry...
The Whistleblower - a thriller with real guts →
This film just opened the Human Rights Watch Film Festival at Lincoln Center. It illuminates a side of “peacekeeping,” civilian contractors, and UN activities that you will not see in your morning paper. It’s a thriller that is also a true story.
Can two cows really explain the Middle East? Hmmm
The Cynical Dairy Farmer’s Guide to the New Middle East
How a couple of cows explain a changing region: equal opportunity offender edition.
BY KARIM SADJADPOUR | JUNE 15, 2011
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/15/the_cynical_dairy_farmer_s_guide_to_the_new_middle_east?page=full#.TflNr3BdyJw;facebook
In the early years of the Cold War, in an effort to simplify — and...
Did CIA try to "get" anti-Iraq war blogger? →
Congratulations to my good friend and long-time colleague Juan Cole. He has now joined an eminent group of thoughtful Americans who have been smeared by people in or around the White House. The best revenge would be that the neo-cons who tried to “get” him will now only increase the readership of his excellent blog. Keep up the good work, Juan!
The best answer to this little outrage...
Summer Reading for Wonks →
Foreign Policy magazine has compiled a rather lengthy summer reading list for policy wonks. My three choices are not very wonky, perhaps because the list was influenced by my wife, Karlan, who is a librarian who reads everything. But at least in part because of that, you can trust me that you cannot go wrong with these three:
Bharati Mukherjee, Miss New India. An engaging look at the changes...
May 2011
5 posts
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/06/06/11060... →
Seymour Hersh has written a clear-eyed and non-sensationalized analysis of Iran’s nuclear program in the latest issue of The New Yorker that came out today. A summary is pasted below. For the full text, click on the link above. In view of all the hype and fear-mongering, this is a factual breath of fresh air.
Summary: Is Iran actively trying to develop nuclear weapons? Members of the Obama...