Clinton & Gates: More forthcoming than advertised?
Secretary of State Clinton and Secretary of Defense Gates both appeared on Sunday talk shows yesterday. Full text of the interviews may be found at
http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/27/transcript-secretary-of-state-clinton-on-cbs/ and at:
http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/27/transcripts-secretary-of-defense-gates-on-cnn-abc/
The media has focused almost exclusively on the tough words in those interviews. In fact, I suspect that was the intent, to make the US sound tough, confident and determined going into Thursday’s meeting of the P5+1 and Iran.
However, if I were an Iranian negotiator, I would pay attention to some of the other words that the media overlooked:
Hillary Clinton said: “We have made it clear to Iran that they have a right to peaceful nuclear energy for civilian purposes under appropriate safeguards and monitoring, but not to a nuclear weapons program.” A bit later she suggested that “they can open up their entire system to the kind of extensive investigation that the facts call for.”
There was no mention of dismantling centrifuges or zero enrichment. In fact, Clinton’s formulation would not appear to dismiss the possibility that some accommodation of Iranian enrichment might be worked out in return for Iranian acceptance of enhanced inspection/monitoring.
She also discussed sanctions, but she stayed away from any mention of interference with Iranian imports of refined petroleum products (which the US Congress is probably going to be pushing in the next few weeks). Instead, she said “we’re exploring how you broaden and deepen sanctions. Now, sanctions are already in place, as you know. But, like many sanction regimes, they’re leaky.”
This certainly implies that the US will be thinking of broadening the scope and tightening the enforcement of financial sanctions. They are much more likely to get Russian support (and perhaps even tacit Chinese acquiescence) for that, as opposed to the dangerous and self-defeating “crippling sanctions” that have been discussed elsewhere.
Bob Gates was even more explicit on this point. He said “there are a variety of options still available, including sanctions on banking, particularly sanctions on equipment and technology for their oil and gas industry. I think there’s a pretty rich list to pick from, actually.”
Without trying to read more into these statements than may be intended, it does appear to me that the Obama administration is positioning itself for maximum leverage by holding out enhanced sanctions as a possible pressure tactic but is also allowing room for mutual accommodation if Iran is willing to consider it. If so, that is a more sophisticated and pragmatic position going into the negotiations than many would have expected.
