gary's choices

Revolutions: The Egyptian Case

From Gary Sick:

A number of outside observers  (including me) have put the events in Egypt in the context of other revolutions, particularly the experience in Iran — in 1978 but also in the failed protests by the Green Movement in 2009.

Although the Israeli government is officially remaining absolutely silent, some Israelis are calling for the United States to resist the temptation to side with the protesters, with all the uncertainties involved in that, and instead to preserve the government in some form. Perhaps more to the point, the US government seems to be taking the same course, i.e. find a way to maintain the current Egyptian government, whether or not Mubarak remains as head of government, with the objective of insuring that the successor rule continues to observe the obligations that Egypt has accepted with respect to keeping the peace with Israel.

This is not just ideology. If a government emerges in Egypt that renounces past commitments and is prepared to consider hostile action against Israel, the absence of a general Arab-Israel war, which has been the dominant feature of Mideast politics for the past three decades, will evaporate. Whatever one thinks about US or Israeli or Egyptian policy over the past 30 years, and it is hard to find something positive to say about any of them, the Middle East and the world would become a much more dangerous and unpredictable place.

In these discussions, there is an implication that if the US only understood the situation correctly, it could somehow make it all come out in a positive way. Frankly, I find that simply ridiculous. Washington’s words have not been heeded in Egypt — either by the Mubarak regime or the people — except when it was to their own benefit. Like Bush’s highly touted democracy building episode, it was little more than shouting into the wind.

The United States probably does have the capacity to accelerate the fall of Mubarak’s government if we should choose to do so, by withdrawing our massive subsidies to the military. It seems clear at this point that Washington has no intention of pursuing that course.

However, it is not at all clear that Washington can somehow create a government to its liking in Cairo that will also be accepted by the masses of people who have now found their voice. Needless to say, the suggestion that somehow Iran could significantly manipulate events is even more ludicrous.

The dilemma is that the crowds in the street are not interested in continuity. And continuity is really all that Washington and Tel Aviv want.

Yes, the outcome may be terribly messy and ultimately contrary to the people’s dreams of liberty and democracy and meaningful reform. But the real question is whether Washington has the ability — quite apart from the will — to make it come out the way they would like.

I am obviously very skeptical.